Over the weekend, the Republican mock convention at Washington and Lee University picked Mitt Romney as the likely Republican nominee for president. And, the delegates selected Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell as his likely running mate.

The organizers told WSLS that McDonnell made a lot of sense when paired with Romney. They cited his conservative credentials to balance Romney’s more moderate credentials. They cited his Southern roots to balance Romney’s Northeastern roots. They cited Virginia as a battleground state in the GOP contest and one that the Republicans need to put back in the GOP column if they are to win in November.

Let me be clear, these are all very solid reasons. The delegates had sound reasoning. And, for that reason alone, McDonnell is unlikely to be the GOP vice presidential pick.

Name one time in the last twenty years when the most logical, most expected politician was picked as a running mate? Just one… please.

VP picks generally are far from rationale or expected. Often, the candidates are picked from relative obscurity like Dan Quayle, Geraldine Ferraro, and Sarah Palin. Sometimes the picks bring nothing to the table in terms of a state. Bush didn’t need help winning Wyoming, Obama didn’t need help winning Delaware, and Gore didn’t need help winning Connecticut. And, sometimes a candidate just doesn’t make sense. What did Jack Kemp bring to the table in 1996? Yes, he was a respected conservative which helped Bob Dole with the Republican base. But, his home state of New York didn’t go to the Republicans thanks to his selection and his Northeastern background didn’t help a party based mainly in the south and the plains states.

Other times a logical pick on paper does nothing to help the ticket. Lloyd Bentsen made sense. A conservative, well respected senator from Texas balanced a liberal, Northeastern governor. But even Bentsen, with his long track record of winning elections in the Lone Star State couldn’t help the doomed Dukakis ticket in Texas or the country.

Frankly, in my lifetime I can think of only two smart VP picks that actually helped a candidate win an election. George Bush, who came in second in the GOP nominating process in 1980 brought some regional and ideological balance to the ticket. And, Al Gore, while a Southern like Bill Clinton, brought energy and a resume to the ticket and helped the Democrats win some crucial Southern states like Tennessee, Georgia, and Kentucky.

But, think about it, if George Bush had picked Florida Senator Connie Mack or Al Gore and picked Florida Senator Bob Graham, we might not have had the 2000 election debacle. Either one of those picks could have been pivotal.

Bottom line… vice presidential picks rarely follow the expected script. And, they rarely make a difference in the election.