Recently, the McDonnell campaign was touting a poll showing its candidate on the rise in the polls. They referenced a new Rasmussen Research poll that showed McDonnell leading all potential opponents. Democrat and former Delegate Brian Moran came the closest to McDonnell, trailing by just 3 points (39% to 36%). McDonnell led Terry McAuliffe by seven points and Bath County Sen. Creigh Deeds by nine points.

These results obviously have the McDonnell folks, and Republicans in general, pleased… if not down right thrilled. Remember, the party has been locked out of the governor’s mansion for 7 years and they’ve lost a string of big elections recently including the presidential election, two US Senate races, a handful of US House seats, and control of the State Senate.

But for several reasons, I would argue that this poll doesn’t mean much at this stage in the election.

First, McDonnell is the only statewide elected official running for governor this year. The other candidates have never held statewide office and have lower name recognition.

Second, the Democrats are in a three-way race for the nomination. And while the attacks have been pretty tame so far, there is still a level of discord that is dividing the party. I suspect the party will unite around whoever wins the nomination in June.

Third, it’s too early. Polls at this stage of an election don’t tell us much more than who is better known. And, as I mentioned earlier, that is unquestionably Attorney General Bob McDonnell.

Fourth, the commonwealth is on a blue streak, if you will. Obama capitalized on that in 2008 and built the strongest GOTV effort of any candidate in Virginia history. All of that campaign structure will be used by the eventual Democratic nominee, giving that person a huge assist.

But the final reason carries the most weight. Statewide polls numbers right now don’t truly reflect the public’s mood. I would argue that instead of watching polls on the governor’s race, we should be watching the poll numbers for President Obama, Congress, and the public’s mood re: right track/wrong track.

For almost three decades, the party out of power in the White House has won the Virginia governor’s mansion. This has held true no matter the party controlling the White House. For some reason, Virginia is more impacted by what’s happening in Washington, DC than any other state in the union. If President Obama is still riding high in the polls and his stimulus plan has started to turn things around (or at least halted the slide we’re on), then the Democrat will likely has a shot at winning. If Obama’s poll numbers have turned south, it could be a completely different story.

I am in no way saying that this race is the Democrats to lose. McDonnell is an attractive candidate who is a solid campaigner, has a strong campaign team, and an easy walk to his party’s nomination. Additionally, he’ll have plenty of money to compete in this race. All in all, I think it will be competitive… perhaps until election day. But, I’m convinced that President Obama’s job performance will have a big impact on the eventual outcome of the race.

So, instead of obsessing over the latest poll number being touted by McDonnell, Deeds, Moran or McAuliffe, I’m going to keep my eye on the national polls.

That’s my take. What do you think?