The candidates for governor are beginning to spend more time in our neck of the woods, but still not nearly as much as other regions of the commonwealth are seeing. In particular, we are not seeing any television advertising while Northern Virginia and particularly Richmond and Hampton Roads are.

Why? I believe there are several explanations.

1) Money. It costs money (in some markets like NOVA it costs a lot of money) to advertise. Right now the only candidate who can afford to spend on TV is Terry McAuliffe. He has raised gobs on campaign cash. He’s on television with several different ads, but none of them are showing here.

2) It’s a primary. Television advertising often yields only marginal results during a primary. The turnout is so low that most campaigns prefer to spend their money on direct mail, grassroots organization, phone calls, and some radio ads. All can be more fine-tuned to specific audiences. Television tends to reach a broader audience… an audience that isn’t as likely to vote in primaries.

3) It’s all about the battleground. In previous elections Southwest Virginia has been the battleground… the area of the state a candidate needed to win to secure victory. That meant we saw the candidates a lot and they spent a lot on advertising and organization here. This time, it appears the candidates are giving much more attention to Richmond and Hampton Roads. More recently, Hampton Roads has been crucial in deciding elections.

4) Home turf. This ties directly the point #3. Creigh Deeds is from this end of the state. He appeals to rural voters and through his elections to the House of Delegates, the Virginia Senate and his near miss in the 2005 attorney general race has proven he can get their votes. McAuliffe and former Del. Brian Moran are from Northern Virginia with some believing they’ll likely split the vote there. That leaves Richmond and Hampton Roads up for grabs.

Will this trend hold true throughout the rest of the primary… which doesn’t happen until June 9th? My guess is yes and no. We may see some ads between now and then, but I doubt it will be anywhere near as intense as a general election campaign. I do suspect we’ll begin to see the candidates more and more. Rallies are cheaper and generally are more likely to generate free media than TV ads.

The general election could be a different can of worms. But we won’t know for sure until the candidates are picked. More on that, a little later.

UPDATE: It appears I was partly right and partly wrong! All sides are now advertising, although McAuliffe is still the big spender. So, on this front, I was off by a little.

But as for the battlegrounds in this election and where the eventually nominee would secure the nomination, I think I was pretty close. Consider this recent posting from the politicalwire.com.

          “McAuliffe Pulls Away in Virginia
          After three months of polling showing the Democratic race for Virginia Governor in a dead heat, Terry McAuliffe has broken out from
          the pack, taking a ten point lead over Brian Moran, according to a new Public Policy Polling survey.

          McAuliffe is now at 30%, followed by Moran at 20%, and Creigh Deeds at 14%. Another 36% are still undecided.

          Key findings: “McAuliffe has done a very good job of building up support in areas where none of the candidates have an inherent
          regional base. He is polling over 35% and has a lead of at least 20 points in the Tidewater region, greater Richmond, and Southside.
          He’s also built a strong lead with African Americans.”

          A recent SurveyUSA poll also showed McAuliffe leading the pack by double digits.”