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Wednesday, January 27, 2010

What to expect from Obama’s address…

Tonight, President Obama will deliver his second State of the Union address. Few would argue that he starts his second year in office in a much weaker position politically. We’ve witnessed a noticeable decline in his poll numbers from the mid-60’s to the high-40’s. But, his current position is probably best summed up by the upset victory last week of Republican Scott Brown to replace Ted Kenney in the US Senate. The president and particularly his party are in trouble.

So, how will he use his address and the national attention? Here’s what I’m looking for:

1) Will President Obama strike a fighter or conciliatory tone? He campaigned on a theme of working across party lines. But, following Scott Brown’s victory, the President has sounded more and more determined. He traveled to Ohio Friday of last week and he used the word “fight” countless times in his speech. It almost felt like was campaigning again.

2) Will his message feed into the current populist feeling sweeping the country? That populist theme helped elect Brown in deep blue Massachusetts and it’s caught fire among independent voters. Last Thursday, the President seemed to be embracing it with his announcement of an aggressive plan to reform the banking industry. Will we see more of that tonight?

3) There’s some data to suggest that the economy is slowly turning around, but consumer confidence is still low and many, many Americans are still hurting. Will President Obama try to sell a message of economic recovery or admit that the recovery has been slower than anticipated and that many Americans aren’t doing any better? In essence, will the president be realistic or optimistic… or a combination of both?

4) Just how hard will President Obama fight for health care reform? The election of Senator-elect Brown has sent the reform effort into disarray. Many are now predicting that the current Senate bill can’t pass. Will the president call for a scaled back reform package or continue the fight for the current reform bill?

5) Will President Obama try to explain the voter anger that’s reflected in many of the public polls and was manifested in Scott Brown’s victory? And if so, what will his explanation be?

6) With his domestic agenda suffering, how much time will President Obama spend talking about foreign affairs, where he has seen some modest success?

7) Finally, what reaction will President Obama receive from the Republicans. Remember last year, Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) taunted the president during his address. Did Wilson’s action embolden other Republicans to do the same, or will the GOP leadership keep its members in line?

Just a few of things unanswered questions as we go into President Obama’s second State of the Union Address.

CORRECTION: I incorrectly noted that President Obama was delivering his second State of the Union address in this entry. Tonight, he delivered his first State of the Union address. But, it was his second address to the joint houses of Congress. His first address was made in September when his addressed Congress on health care reform.

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About Jay's Take

Jay Warren is an award-winning journalist who's been with WSLS since 1998. Jay co anchors the 5, 5:30, 6 and 11 p.m. newscasts and the FOX 21/27 10 o'clock news. He is also WSLS's senior political correspondent.

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