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Thursday, February 05, 2009

What are the odds of the smoking ban passing?

Governor Kaine and key leaders in the House and Senate have reached a compromise on a statewide smoking ban in restaurants and bars.

This is a huge step for those opposed to smoking, and frankly one that I did not see happening this year. As many of you know, the smoking ban has been a hot-button issue for years now. And it has always faced an uphill climb in the House of Delegates.

Several years ago, House Majority Leader Morgan Griffith (R-Salem) told me there would eventually be a smoking ban in Virginia. He said it would just take a few years. I took that to mean 2010 or later.

I talked with Griffith this evening. He puts the odds of the ban passing this year at 50-50, but adds that those are the best odds this bill has ever had.

One final note: Griffith has not decided how he’ll vote on the ban. He told me he wants to wait and see the final version before making a decision.

Griffith believes the Senate will easily adopt the measure, but the House is another story. The Speaker of the House, who helped craft the compromise on the ban, is not requiring other House Republicans to follow his lead on this issue.

If Kaine is able to keep all House Democrats in line, then there should be enough moderate Republicans from swing districts to pass the ban in the House. In other words, for this to become a reality, Kaine will have to use some political muscle.

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About Jay's Take

Jay Warren is an award-winning journalist who's been with WSLS since 1998. Jay co anchors the 5, 5:30, 6 and 11 p.m. newscasts and the FOX 21/27 10 o'clock news. He is also WSLS's senior political correspondent.

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