If you had asked me two weeks ago, I would have said the GOP nomination could well be wrapped up by mid January… certainly no later than early February. At that time, it looked like Mitt Romney might sweep through Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida. Given his establishment support, financial edge, and credentials, it would be been nearly impossible to derail him after those victories.

And, all of that would have made Virginia’s March primary a dull event.

Boy, what a difference a few weeks makes. Now, it appears that Newt Gingrich may well sweep through Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida. And, while that will certainly make him the frontrunner, it will not guarantee him the nomination. He is lacking many of Romney’s advantages including campaign cash and support from GOP leaders. Romney has been stockpiling cash and is well positioned to fight for the nomination to the bitter end.

All of this means that Virginia’s primary should be far more interesting than I expected a few weeks ago.

In 2000, Virginia became George W. Bush’s firewall after disappointing losses to John McCain in New Hampshire and Michigan, the wheels looked like they were coming off his campaign. Thanks to a big push from the Governor Jim Gilmore, Bush prevailed in the commonwealth. That victory righted his campaign and he never looked back, easily winning the nomination. Bush rewarded Gilmore for his efforts by naming him chairman of the Republican National Committee.

In 2008, the Democratic nomination was very much up in the air when Virginia’s Democrats went to the polls. Barack Obama easily won with an assist from his friend, then Governor Tim Kaine. This matchup wasn’t as heated as 2000, but still important as Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama started counting delegates toward the end of the primary campaign.

Will 2012 be as pivotal as 2000 or 2008? It’s hard to say at this stage of the campaign. But, the odds are much better today than they were two or three weeks ago.