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Thursday, September 17, 2009

The 2nd debate is done… what are the implications?

As promised, the second gubernatorial debate between Republican Bob McDonnell and Democrat Creigh Deeds produced some fireworks.

In my last posting, I mentioned that I would be looking for several things and I can tell you that a number of things did jump out at me.

1) The thesis issue doesn’t seem to be going away. The document in question is Bob McDonnell’s 20-year-old graduate thesis. In it, the former Virginia Attorney General “criticized working women and feminists and argued for state policies favoring heterosexual two-parent families over “cohabitators, homosexuals, or fornicators.” The issue came up repeatedly during the debate and McDonnell appeared testy when asked about the issue during and following the debate.

Also, the latest Rasmussen poll shows what was once a 9-point lead for McDonnell has shrunk to 2 points, with McDonnell leading 48% to 46%. Our political analyst, Dr. Bob Denton, says the thesis is part of the reason.

2) President Obama will be an issue for Creigh Deeds. During the debate, the moderator asked Deeds if he was an “Obama Democrat.” The Bath County State Senator paused and finally said while he admired the president, he was a “Deeds Democrat.” Also, the issues being pushed by the administration and national Democrats, including Cap and Trade legislation and health care reform, continue to be topics Deeds has to run away from.

Finally, when asked if the national debate over the past summer and the recent criticism of President Obama was fueled in part over race, Deeds answered yes. Specifically, he said, “You know, I would like to think that in this country that we are beyond some things. But clearly, there’s a hint of racism in some of the opposition against President Obama, that’s crystal clear. I was very disturbed the other night, at the outburst on the floor of the House. I thought that was an unprecedented outburst that would not have occurred in the past, did not occur previously. I hope we are broad enough as a people to be able to discuss our differences civilly.”

I don’t doubt that is how Deeds feels, but I am also quite certain that he would rather not be talking about this issue which is loaded with emotion and has the potential to fire up the base on both sides of the political spectrum. Simply put, politicians generally don’t like to talk about race, particularly six weeks away from election day.

3) National issues will continue to play a major role in this election. Major chunks of the debate were taken up by Cap and Trade, President Obama, and health care reform. This could spell trouble for Democrat Deeds. In this political environment, the more nationalized the race is, the better it is for Bob McDonnell.

4) Up until recently this campaign has generally had a civil tone. During the first debate of the campaign in July, both candidates were polite to each other and genuinely seemed to at least respect each other, if not like each other. This debate had a different tone and the candidates’ interaction with reporters following the debate was also more confrontational. McDonnell and Deeds seemed on edge. This is not overly surprising, as we are down to the last few weeks. But still, it’s a sign that this race will likely get uglier as election day approaches.

Both candidates will be at the Hotel Roanoke Friday morning speaking at an economic development conference. We’ll see if a night’s sleep has cooled things down.

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About Jay's Take

Jay Warren is an award-winning journalist who's been with WSLS since 1998. Jay co anchors the 5, 5:30, 6 and 11 p.m. newscasts and the FOX 21/27 10 o'clock news. He is also WSLS's senior political correspondent.

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