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Tuesday, February 02, 2010

The 2012 GOP Senate field

Last week, I looked at the moves Sen. Jim Webb appears to be making as he prepares for a potentially tough reelection bid in 2012.

But, who will Sen. Webb face? No doubt there’s a long list of people considering a bid, some of them viable and others… well not so much.

Here’s a first, very preliminary list of possible candidates:

- Former Senator and Governor George Allen. Webb beat Allen in 2006 and there are some who say the senator is ready for a rematch. I recently asked him if he was considering the race and he admitted that people are encouraging him and that he and his wife aren’t closing any doors.

- Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling. Bolling sat out the governor’s race this year to avoid a messy primary with then Attorney General Bob McDonnell. Instead, Bolling ran for reelection as lt. governor. But, he’s again facing the possibility of a messy primary as Republican Ken Cuccinelli, a darling of the conservative wing of the Republican Party in Virginia, was also elected attorney general last year. If Cuccinelli isn’t willing to sit out the next primary in 2013, then Bolling might well decide to run for the Senate seat and avoid an intra-party blood bath.

- Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli. Cuccinelli will have to make some big decisions in near future. Does he run for governor against Lt. Governor Bolling or does he follow the 2009 model and step aside to avoid a messy primary. If he opts to pass on the governor’s race, Cuccinelli could run for reelection at AG in 2013 or decide to challenge Webb in 2012.

- Rep. Eric Cantor. The House Minority Whip is a rising star in the GOP. He was rumored to be considered a long shot running mate for Sen. John McCain in 2008 and shot up the leadership ranks in the House in record time. He is one of the top 5 or 10 people in the Republican Party shaping policy and strategy. A move to a larger profile would no doubt interest Cantor. But given his position in the House leadership and the Republican’s odds of retaking control of the chamber, I would doubt that Cantor would be willing to jump to another race. He’s in line to be Speaker of the House and much more powerful post than Virginia’s junior US Senator.

- Rep. Bob Goodlatte. Goodlatte has been rumored for statewide office, including the Senate and governor, in the past. However, he’s never made the jump. Goodlatte was the Chair of the Agriculture Committee before the Democrats took control of the House, and would likely be in line to chair a committee (Agriculture or Judiciary) if the Republicans retake the House in 2010 or 2012. Ultimately, that could be more enticing than the uncertainty of a Senate bid.

- The rest of the GOP House members. There are several among the GOP ranks that would likely consider a bid including Rep. Randy Forbes and Frank Wolf. But, none of them have statewide name recognition.

- Former Governor Jim Gilmore. Gilmore ran against Mark Warner in 2008 and lost in a near historic fashion. Warner defeated Gilmore by almost 30 points and beat him in EVERY congressional district, including the most conservative districts like the 6th. Still, Gilmore would come to the race with an impressive resume and two winning statewide campaigns under his belt. He’s ambitious and has a loyal following. He’d have trouble winning a primary but a convention could be a different story.

- Former Congressman Virgil Goode. Goode was defeated for reelection in 2008 by political newcomer Tom Perriello and he declined a rematch with Perriello in 2010. That’s probably a big signal that he’s done with politics. But, he has expressed interest in the Senate in the past and if no one else jumps in, Goode could see this as his opening for a political comeback.

- Former Congressman Tom Davis. Davis retired in 2008 to pursue a Senate bid. He had long been rumored as John Warner’s pick when he retired. But, Davis dropped out of the race when Republicans decided to pick their nominee by convention. The moderate Davis knew he couldn’t defeat Gilmore for the nomination. He’s a strong statewide candidate, but securing the nomination is always going to be a hurdle for him.

Ultimately, on the GOP side, I would say this is George Allen’s race if he wants it. If he stays out it could be a free for all.

And, keep in mind that we are two years out from picking the nominee and 2 ½ years out from the November election. A lot can happen in that amount of time. I mean A LOT! In early 2006, George Allen was a lock for reelection and believed to be one of the top contenders for the GOP presidential nomination in 2008. On the Democratic side, no one had ever heard of Jim Webb and the most mentioned Democratic names for the Senate race were LF Payne, Don Beyer, Rick Boucher, and Creigh Deeds. Oh how things changed.

So, my list is a beginning point and it will no doubt change many times over. One thing is for sure: the 2012 Senate election is likely to be a very interesting one.

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