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Thursday, November 18, 2010

Polling shows competitive 2012 Virginia Senate contest

A new poll out by Public Policy Polling, which is a firm with connections to the Democratic Party, shows that Senator Jim Webb has a lot to think about as he considers reelection.

In an environment that still tends to be somewhat toxic for Democrats and in a state that has trended Republican (heavily) over the last two election cycles, Webb starts the election cycle ahead of all polled Republican challengers.

Webb would beat former Republican Governor and Senator George Allen, the man he defeated four years ago, 49% to 45%. And he tops two term Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling and first term Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli by even larger margins, 49% to 38% and 49% to 39% respectively.

The poll also tested former Democratic Governor and current DNC Chair Tim Kaine against the three Republicans and he topped all three as well by roughly the same margins; although, Kaine gets to the magical 50% number.

In fact, the only Democrat polled that the three men would beat is soon to be former Congressman Tom Perriello. But, even those numbers aren’t stellar for the Republicans. They show Allen beating Perriello by five points (47%-42%). Bolling and Cuccinelli are even closer to Perriello, basically tied (42%-41%, 44%-41% respectively).

What do these numbers tell us? First, that the Democrats aren’t in as bad a position at this stage of the election as you might expect. Webb has only been on the ballot once in his life, yet he would beat three candidates who have run statewide and won multiple times (Cuccinelli is the only exception, having only run once).

Second, so long as the candidates have high name ID, the candidate’s actual name doesn’t matter that much. Webb, Allen, Cuccinelli, and Bolling should fit into the category of possessing high name ID; although, the poll shows Bolling with having the lowest name ID of all six men tested. I find this hard to believe, since he has run for statewide office twice and won, including his landslide victory last year.

Perhaps the most surprising part of the poll is Perriello’s showing. He’s hardly known outside the 5th congressional district, yet he ties two candidates well known across the commonwealth, and only trails Allen, a fixture in Virginia politics for two decades, by five points.

It is early to be sure, and no matter who the nominees are, both sides will invest heavily in this race. It is going to be a top tier contest that will receive national attention. And, this poll shows this race will likely be very competitive.

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About Jay's Take

Jay Warren is an award-winning journalist who's been with WSLS since 1998. Jay co anchors the 5, 5:30, 6 and 11 p.m. newscasts and the FOX 21/27 10 o'clock news. He is also WSLS's senior political correspondent.

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