There’s a huge debate going on right now about the Deeds campaign and President Barack Obama.

The Washington Post has a story today that says top Democratic advisors are privately laying the groundwork to blame Deeds personally for a potential loss on November 3rd. The Post article even goes so far to quote unnamed sources as calling Deeds a “bad” candidate.

This strategy insulates the president and ensures that his popularity isn’t tainted by the first statewide loss for a Virginia Democrat in four years and the biggest statewide loss in 11 years when then Republican Attorney General Jim Gilmore resoundingly defeated the Democratic Lt. Governor Don Beyer.

The theory goes something like this: if Creigh Deeds had only followed the advice of the Obama team and Governor Tim Kaine… he’d be winning. That advice of course included using Obama extensively.

It’s a nice theory. But, would it have worked?

On the one hand you can certainly argue that President Obama could help Creigh Deeds in several areas. He can excite African American voters, who have traditionally been hesitant to embrace Deeds. Let’s face it, if black voters had voted for Deeds in his AG race four years ago by the same number they voted for Tim Kaine, Deeds would have won the AG race (which he only lost by 350ish votes… the closest election in Virginia history). The president can also energize the Democratic base, which so far seems unengaged.

Those are obviously things Creigh Deeds needs right now. But, all that help comes with baggage.

First, Virginia elections are not decided on the backs of the two parties. Yes, you have to energize your base to win. No debate there. But, you also have to win the independent vote, which comprises roughly a third of the electorate in the commonwealth. Right now, polling shows that Republican Bob McDonnell is winning that group handily. It also shows in state after state, that independents are the most likely group (after Republicans) to give President Obama fair to weak approval ratings.

So, would a big push by President Obama help Creigh Deeds with independents? Would Deeds sucking up to the president’s agenda, including a public option in health care reform and cap and trade legislation, win over those skeptical independents? I don’t think so.

The Post article cites two other races where the candidates have more closely aligned themselves with President Obama and his policies: the New Jersey governor’s race and a special election to fill a House seat in New York. It both cases it appears that strategy is yielding positive results for the Democrats. But the metrics of those races are very different from Virginia’s gubernatorial contest.

The Obama strategy works in deep blue New Jersey where winning is a matter of getting the Democratic vote out. Further, both races have three credible candidates who are polling in the double digits. That means the winning candidate doesn’t have to reach 50 percent + 1. They can win with just the traditional Democratic base voter.\

Creigh Deeds doesn’t have that luxury and he’s not running in a deep blue state. Instead, he’s running in a purple state that has a longstanding tendency of voting against the party in power in the White House. Instead, he’s running in a purple state that has a longstanding tendency of voting against the party in power in the White House.

So, as you can see, Creigh Deeds didn’t have many good options. It would take a very skilled politician to maneuver between embracing Obama and his policies and at the same time turning them away to win over independents. Who in Virginia might be able to effectively do that? Jerry Kilgore couldn’t in 2005 when he faced a similar problem on the Republican side. Governor Kaine’s approval rating is down (although not horrible) in part due to his connection to Obama and Washington DC, as he is now chairing the DNC. Former Sen. John Warner even found himself at odds with his base and at the whim of national political winds at times during his long, storied political career. Former Senator George Allen also lost in part thanks to a national mood that had soured intensely on the party ruling Washington.

I would say the ONLY politician in Virginia who could manage the situation Creigh Deeds is in is Mark Warner. And even the most loyal Deeds supporter would admit… Creigh Deeds is no Mark Warner.

So, Team Obama and Gov. Kaine may have come up with a plan they thought would get Deeds across the finish line. And maybe, if everything broke their way, it would have worked. But, I doubt it. And I certainly don’t fault the Deeds campaign for trying to figure out its own path to victory.

For the record, President Obama is making a push for Deeds in the home stretch of this campaign. He has filmed a commercial for him, will appear with Deeds at ODU next week, and his team sent out a support email.