SurveyUSA is out with a new poll showing State Senator Robert Hurt up by 23 points over incumbent freshman Representative Tom Perriello.

Should we believe the numbers? At this stage in the campaign, I’m unsure.

First, it’s doubtful that Hurt’s name identification in the district is anywhere near the level that would lead him to a 20+ victory. He hasn’t aired an ad yet and just prevailed in a primary fight that included very little advertising. He represents a portion of a sprawling district that extends through two media markets all the way to Charlottesville. In other words, he has some work to do to get his name out there.

Second, the station that did the poll failed to include the margin of error in their online reporting, which leaves one with a lot of questions about the sample, etc. Further, many political experts and campaign professionals are quick to criticize SurveyUSA’s robo-call technique. There’s some validity to the argument, as you never know who is really on the other end of the phone. That in and of itself isn’t all that troubling given SurveyUSA’s prior track record predicting elections (they are actually one of the most accurate polling firms), when all of the other information about the sample, margin of error, etc. is released. Without it, there are legitimate questions.

Finally, this race has yet to really engage. Hurt’s campaign has been silent for the past few weeks and Perriello has only aired one ad, a positive commercial that touted his record on job creation. That’s it. We haven’t had a debate, there haven’t been any negative ads, etc. There’s a lot of campaign to happen between now and November.

What does this poll really tell us? In my view it is further confirmation of the horrible environment for Democrats. At this early stage in the race, this poll is more likely a fair sample of people saying they’re going to vote for the candidate with an “R” after their name or a “D” after their name.

At this point, the only thing that’s keeping the Democrats in a lot of Virginia races is their money advantage. Rep. Rick Boucher and Perriello both have nearly $2 million dollars cash on hand… each. And several other freshman Democrats in Virginia have over a million. All of their opponents have far less.

Will this be enough to save them? It’s entirely too early to tell. But, if this poll is to be believed, the Democrats have a fight on their hands no matter how much money they have.