As promised… I have a few more observations from the Democratic Gubernatorial Debate in Blacksburg and the race overall:

1) The candidates seemed for the most part very well prepared for the debate. On the surface, this may seem like a no-brainer. But remember, it’s the first time two of the candidates have run statewide (and the first time one of them has ever run for public office). And for all three, this is the most scrutiny they’ve ever received. On almost all the questions, all three had quick, smart answers. The most notable exception was equal pay. That question stumped Creigh Deeds and left Brian Moran dodging.

2) If the eventual winner is either Moran or Terry McAuliffe, they will prove a formidable debater in the general election. Both were articulate, passionate, skilled and turning a question to their advantage, and even charismatic.

3) State Sen. Deeds is also VERY passionate. You can tell his heart is in the race. However, he sometimes displays that passion by yelling his answer. It can work occasionally, but only in select cases. He needs to pick his moments.

4) Just by the way McAuliffe answered the questions it was evident he was the candidate looking past the primary and to the general election. His answers were more broad and more moderate. And, he was the candidate least likely to break away from his prepared talking points.

5) The polling and trend lines in this race must be correct. McAuliffe is leading in money and organization and just recently took the lead in the polls. But that poll had a high margin of error and some rather large question marks. Further, I am always suspicious of polling for a primary since the pool of voters will be incredibly small and unpredictable. With those caveats, one rule is rarely wrong: the candidate under the most fire is generally ahead. Judging from Wednesday’s debate and the tone of the news releases from the Moran campaign, there is no question Terry McAuliffe is that candidate.

6) There are some question marks about the enthusiasm of Virginia Democrats. The crowd in Blacksburg was standing room only. But, a lot of that could have been fueled by the Virginia Tech faculty, staff, and student body which are more Democratic and liberal than most voters in the commonwealth. A debate the night before in Danville was not well attended (and that is being kind).

7) Even though party leaders say the negative tone of the race won’t weaken the eventual nominee, I’m not convinced. Moran’s attacks on McAuliffe were the most negative I have seen in a primary is some time. That bad blood could impact the primary by dampening turnout. Also, if McAuliffe does eventually win the nomination, it’s easy to see how some of Moran’s pointed, personal attacks could easily end up in A Republican attack ad.

8) Finally, as I noted in my last posting, the negative tone of the campaign is likely to only worsen. If Moran starts to move up in the polls, he’ll take that as a sign that his attacks are working. If he continues to lag behind, his only hope of gaining traction will be to attack with even more vigor. In other words: get ready!

One more thing stood out to me during the debate: accents. I’ll have more on that later…