I’ve blogged several times this year about the prospects of Sen. Jim Webb running for reelection. To be honest, very few people if any really know what’s going to happen. In fact, all published reports seem to indicate that even Sen. Webb hasn’t decided. So, we are really just reading tea leaves at this stage.

But, up until recently, Webb was sending all the signals of a politician gearing up for reelection in a state that is tilting red. He was shifting to the right on everything from health care to defense issues (like gays in the military) to the budget. I was thinking he’d run.

But the most telling sign of Webb’s intentions are not his policy positions, but his fundraising. And, to date, it has been pathetic. The Weekly Standard reported last week that Webb raised $16,000 in the third quarter and had less than a half million cash on hand. When you consider that most Senate races run in the millions of dollars, Webb doesn’t have a lot of time to fill his campaign coffers.

No, those numbers reek of a candidate ready to retire. We saw that with longtime Senator John Warner back in 2008.

I have little doubt that the election returns in 2009 and 2010 in Virginia have Jim Webb thinking. After almost a decade in the electoral doghouse, Republicans have been unleashed winning all three statewide offices last year by near historic margins and picking up three US House seats this month, including the seat of longtime Democratic incumbent Rick Boucher, a prize that has long alluded the GOP.

And 2012 doesn’t look any more hospitable to the Democratic Party. But, I would add this caution: 2 years in politics is an eternity. In fact, 2 weeks is an eternity. Just ask Sen. George Allen, the man Jim Webb defeated in 2006. Allen started the year riding high in the polls. He was an often mentioned presidential candidate. He appeared invincible. Jim Webb was a little known, political newbie. Early on he looked like token opposition.

All of that changed as the voters’ mood soured. Allen’s predicament became much worse when he was caught on camera muttering “macaca.” The rest is history.

So, Webb would be smart to wait things out. The political environment in early 2012 could be dramatically different that late 2010.