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Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Implications of MA Senate election in VA?

What does Scott Brown’s HUGE victory in the Massachusetts Senate race mean for us? There are several implications including:

1) These results should embolden Republicans to find candidates to run in all races in 2010. The Democrats pursued a similar strategy in 2006 and 2008 and it was VERY successful. The Republicans should do the same.

2) If the Republicans follow this strategy, it means Democrats from risky/marginal districts should be very worried. That would include Reps. Rick Boucher (D-Abingdon) and Tom Perriello (D-Charlottesville). We know Perriello is already likely to have a top tier challenger in State Senator Robert Hurt (R-Pittsylvania Co.) and now I would wager that Boucher will also get a top tier challenger. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if Boucher faces the most competitive race of his congressional career.

3) Republicans would be wise to go after charismatic candidates who stress fiscal conservatism, jobs, and national security over social issues. It worked with Bob McDonnell last November and now with Scott Brown. Hurt may be that candidate in the 5th District. Could Terry Kilgore do the same in the 9th?

4) Health care is likely doomed. Everyone is writing about this, so I won’t belabor it. But, I would suggest that the Democrats would be wise to go back to the drawing board and put together a scaled down version of health care that includes the 85% that both sides agree on. An incremental approach to reform of this magnitude may be the wise approach.

5) Finally, look for a slew of political obit pieces on the Obama Administration, and don’t believe them. I look to history as a guide on this. Remember that we saw obits on the Reagan and Clinton administrations at similar points during their tenure and neither came true. In fact, both won re-election handily. Obama may or may not do the same, we just don’t know. What I do know is that deciding President Obama’s fate 3 years out is foolhardy.

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About Jay's Take

Jay Warren is an award-winning journalist who's been with WSLS since 1998. Jay co anchors the 5, 5:30, 6 and 11 p.m. newscasts and the FOX 21/27 10 o'clock news. He is also WSLS's senior political correspondent.

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