So, if Sen. Jim Webb doesn’t run for reelection in 2012, who will?

On the Republican side it appears evident former Senator George Allen will run for his old seat and is likely the frontrunner. Although, with what we saw this year in GOP primaries, it shouldn’t be assumed that he’ll get the nomination. Establishment candidates did not do well in the 2010 Republican primaries. In fact, in Senate primaries they were often upset by political newcomers. That makes predicting his potential opponents nearly impossible at this stage in the game.

As for the Democrats, the pool of potential candidates isn’t deep. In fact, there are only a handful and most can be marked off the list early on. The list includes:

Former Governor Tim Kaine. Kaine has run and won statewide twice and left office with moderately high approval ratings. But, his image as a political moderate was hurt when he took over the chairmanship of the Democratic National Committee. In one of my last interviews with then-Gov. Kaine he made it clear that he had probably made his last run for public office. I think it’s unlikely Kaine will run, unless President Obama (his close friend) persuades him to do it.

Congressman Tom Perriello. Perriello made headlines in 2008 when he upset a longtime Republican incumbent in a Republican district. But, he didn’t hold the seat for long, losing his bid for a second term to Congress this month. It should be noted that Perriello made the race with State Senator Robert Hurt much closer than it probably should have been given the political winds he was running into. Much of that can be credited to Perriello’s strong campaign abilities, his fundraising skill, and his political persona. Many have noted that Perriello’s political career has just begun and a possible Senate bid could be the next step.

Several other soon-to-be former congressmen could also decide to take on the race including Rick Boucher and Glenn Nye, but Perriello might have the upper hand since he ran the best race of the three this year and has garnered more statewide and national attention.

Former DNC Chair and gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe. McAuliffe lost his first bid for office in 2009 when Creigh Deeds beat him and Brian Moran out for the Democratic nomination for governor and McAuliffe hasn’t stopped running since then. In fact, rather than a Senate bid, he appears ready to take another stab at the governor’s mansion. This businessman may be better suited for an executive job than a legislative job.

The other loser from that Democratic nomination fight could also decide to jump in the race. But, former Delegate Brian Moran’s negatives went way up during the 2009 fight with McAuliffe and he has been virtually invisible since his defeat. He has some work to do outside his NOVA base if he’s going to win a statewide primary or general election.

Delegate and House Minority Leader Ward Armstrong. Recently Armstrong has taken strides to raise his profile across the commonwealth and for good reason. The Democrats don’t appear close to taking control of the House, meaning his dream of becoming House Speaker don’t appear likely any time soon. And, he may lose his seat next year during the redistrictling process. But, the betting money has been that Armstrong will end up running for Attorney General or Lt. Governor. To date, Armstrong has refused to answer my question about his statewide political future.

There are some other “formers” out there that could get in the race including former 2-term Lt. Governor Don Beyers, former Delegate and Virginia Democratic Party Chair Dick Cranwell, former Governor Gerald Baliles, and former Congressman LF Payne. Beyer and Payne often come up on these lists and for at least a decade have refused to run statewide. The others seem unlikely to get back into elective politics.

That sums up the field. It’s a small group and most have some compelling reasons to stay out of the race. In fact, of that group, I’d probably put my money on Perriello to get in the race. Time will tell.

And, here’s one final thing to chew on. In 2006, hardly anyone had heard of the two men who fought to have the Democratic nomination to challenge Sen. Allen. Jim Webb and Harris Miller came out obscurity to run statewide. Webb prevailed in the primary and the general election. So, there very well could be a sleeper candidate out there.