I know the 2010 elections are barely over, but it’s never too early to start looking to the next election.

Some Democrats are already doing that. In fact, tonight on MSNBC I heard one liberal commentator salivate over the possibility of a GOP presidential nominee by the name of Sarah Palin.

After taking a major thumping on Tuesday, it seems to me the Democrats might want to let the dust settle a little bit before they started taunting the Republicans. And, they better be careful what the hope for.

In 1980, Democratic strategists realized their president was weak. They surveyed the Republican field and actually hoped that Ronald Reagan would be the GOP nominee. The thinking was that the former California governor was an intellectual lightweight and would be no match for a sitting president. They also thought he was too conservative to be electable. Boy were they wrong.

I have little doubt that the Republicans underestimated the electability of a young Southern governor in 1991. Early on in the election, President George H.W. Bush looked strong and Bill Clinton looked weak. He had issues with women and hailed from a small state. There were certainly more formidable potential candidates out there like New York Governor Mario Cuomo and Georgia Senator Sam Nunn. Yet, Clinton trudged through the primaries and eventually got the nomination. 20 years later and he’s still a perpetual thorn in the GOP’s back.

In Virginia we’ve seen similar situations. In 2006, I’m sure there were Republicans who initially looked at the Democrat’s Senate nominee and thought he would be easy to dispatch. Jim Webb was a former Republican and there was some concern over his ability to unite the Democratic base. He was also a first time candidate with little name recognition and no campaign cash. He didn’t have a clue how to work a crowd or give a speech. He was untested and wobbly on the campaign trail. But Webb grew as a candidate and smartly capitalized on the mistakes of the once towering George Allen. The once unknown Jim Webb won and became a star in the Democratic controlled US Senate.

My point is simple. It can seem like a good idea to hope for a specific candidate two years out from election day. But it’s not. There’s too much that can happen between the primaries and the general election. The incumbent can have a meltdown. An international crisis can stall the election or give the challenger an opening. A third party candidate can throw the entire election calculus off.

Consider this scenario. If current polls are to be believed, Sarah Palin has an enthusiastic base of supporters. Perhaps it’s around 35% of the electorate. President Obama has a base of about 40% or so. What if an independent candidate looked at those numbers and at the weaknesses of both Palin and Obama and decided to jump in the race. Say that person’s name is independent New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg with his billions of dollars. He could easily garner a large share of the independent vote that’s looking for something fresh. And, if he peels enough votes away from Obama we all the sudden have a jump ball between all three candidates. And, in that very possible scenario, Sarah Palin could prevail. All the sudden it’s President Palin.

I’m not passing judgment on Palin’s ability. That’s for the political pundits and ultimately the voters. But, I will pass judgment on those hoping that she will be the GOP nominee because they are convinced she can’t win. Once you get the nomination, anything can happen. Those Democrats giddy over the idea of nominee Palin need to look at recent history to realize they may regret those feelings in November 2012.