In Virginia, campaigns matter. They matter quite a bit. And, that isn’t always the case in other states or races. Think back to 2008’s Democratic presidential primary. In that contest, most observers would say then Sen. Barack Obama ran a far superior campaign to then Sen. Hillary Clinton, yet Clinton almost prevailed.

But, in Virginia, that rarely if ever happens.

In fact, in the commonwealth without fail, the better campaign prevails. Let’s consider the history.

In 1993, Republican George Allen’s campaign had more energy and organization than the sluggish, over confident campaign of Democrat Mary Sue Terry. Terry started with a 20-point lead against a little-known former one-term congressman. But, Allen’s superior campaign made the difference. He won in a landslide.

In 1997, Republican Jim Gilmore ran a focused campaign with a clearly defined message: no car tax. His opponent was the sitting lt. governor, Don Beyer, who had held statewide office for eight years. Beyer was more the more likeable of the two, but Gilmore’s campaign was more focused and he won easily.

In 2000, incumbent Sen. Chuck Robb ran an unorganized campaign. The candidate seemed to lack the passion for a third Senate bid. It was obvious to reporters and voters. Former Gov. Allen’s spirited, finely tuned campaign came out on top.

In 2001, it was the Democrats turn. Mark Warner faced off against a proven vote getter, Virginia Attorney General Mark Earley. Earley was the better debater, but that was about it. Warner, who lost a close contest in 1996 against Sen. John Warner, never stopped running. He was organized, had a clear game plan, and targeted traditionally Republican segments of the Commonwealth. He won easily.

In 2005, Democrat Lt. Governor Tim Kaine was expected to be the underdog in his bid to replace Warner. But, he ended up winning by a larger margin than Warner. Part of the reason can be placed squarely on his opponent’s campaign. Republican Attorney General Jerry Kilgore had plenty of campaign cash and a big staff, but his campaign made several strategic errors. They aired a series of death penalty ads that many felt went to far. And, his advisors refused to allow Kilgore to be Kilgore. He is an incredibly humble, talented, gracious politician with a great sense of humor. But, the campaign kept him hidden for most of the fall for fear his deep southern accent would alienate voters in Northern Virginia. Rarely did we see Kilgore in his ads and they limited his debate performances. Again, the better campaign prevailed.

In 2006, Democrat Jim Webb didn’t run an outstanding campaign for the US Senate. He was an unsure candidate as it was his first run for public office. But, his opponent’s campaign was even more uneven. Allen’s self inflicted wounds coupled with the national mood favoring Democrats pushed Webb over the finish line. Even if he didn’t run a perfect campaign, he was certainly better than Allen’s.

In 2008, the Warner – Gilmore matchup to replace retiring Sen. John Warner wasn’t even close. Warner had the money, momentum, and charisma to carry the election by a 30-point margin. It was the largest victory for a competitive contest in modern Virginia history. Warner won every congressional district in the commonwealth, even the most conservative districts that went overwhelmingly for Republican presidential candidate John McCain.

That brings us to 2009 and the contest to replace Tim Kaine. We don’t yet know who will win this race, but we do have a pretty good idea. Every single public poll over the last two months has shown Republican Bob McDonnell ahead. The most recent surveys (three in total) have had Democrat Creigh Deeds trailing by double digits. And again, this boils down to campaigning.

McDonnell didn’t have a primary opponent and was able to start organizing his campaign, building support and raising money months before the Democrats even knew who their nominee would be. In short, McDonnell got a huge head start and he made the most of it.

The Democrats went through a bruising three-way primary that wasn’t decided until mid-June. That gave the winner only a month to prepare before the first debate and only two months before the official kick off of the fall campaign. It wasn’t enough time. Deeds’s campaign has been plagued by staff shake-ups, a lack of money, and unclear policy positions that have clearly been developed on the fly.

That’s not to say his staff isn’t talented. They are. But, they were dealt a tough hand. The national mood isn’t favoring Democrats and they had little time to figure out how to counter it.

So in the end, it is likely that yet again, it will be the better campaign that will prevail. There are still seven days for things to change. We’ll see on November third.